And HERE. WE. GO! Big Nasty’s College Football Crapshoot: Week 1

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College Football | 4 Comments

2008 AP Preseason College Football Poll

1 Georgia (22) 11-2 1528 2 (Finished out of the top 10)
2 Ohio St. (21) 11-2 1506 5 (Finished Out of the top 5)
3 Southern Cal (12) 11-2 1490 3
4 Oklahoma (4) 11-3 1444 8
5 Florida (6) 9-4 1415 13
6 Missouri 12-2 1266 4 (Finished out of the top 15)
7 LSU 12-2 1135 1 (Finished UNRANKED)
8 West Virginia 11-2 1116 21 (Finished out of the top 20)
9 Clemson 9-4 1105 6 (Finished UNRANKED)
10 Auburn 9-4 968 10 (Finished UNRANKED)
11 Texas 10-3 966 15
12 Texas Tech 9-4 786 22
13 Wisconsin 9-4 771 24 (Finished UNRANKED)
14 Kansas 12-1 707 7 (Finished UNRANKED)
15 Arizona St. 10-3 631 16 (Finished UNRANKED)
16 BYU 11-2 590 14
17 Virginia Tech 11-3 578 9
18 Tennessee 10-4 509 12 (Finished UNRANKED)
19 South Florida 9-4 496 NR (Finished UNRANKED)
20 Illinois 9-4 483 20 (Finished UNRANKED)
21 Oregon 9-4 366 23
22 Penn St. 9-4 293 NR
23 Wake Forest 9-4 227 NR (Finished UNRANKED)
24 Alabama 7-6 89 NR
25 Pittsburgh 5-7 85 NR (Finished UNRANKED)

Previews are for chumps.  College football is really just a crapshoot filled with a handful of over-exaggerated blindsiding BCS-busting “upsets” that few saw coming.  Looking at a schedule and blindly picking games based on talent is the very reason the word “upset” was created in the first place.  It’s quite obvious what a crapshoot predicting College football really is (See Appalachian State), so why not integrate this theory into a weekly tradition.  After all, if Lou Holtz can stare at a hard camera with a straight face and pick The Irish to go to the BCS National title game, what value do these silly season-long college football previews hold anyway?

To be absolutely honest, I don’t know any more about forecasting college football than Lou Holtz, but he doesn’t know any more than me.  We are all on the same playing field.  All in the same casino.  All playing the same shady dealer with a smirk on his face ready to take all your money.

So let’s just take this college football thing one game at a time and see what happens.  Here we go.

HERE’S WHAT I KNOW IS GOING TO HAPPEN:

• I KNOW that Alabama will SOUNDLY beat Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech has somehow received an inflated preseason ranking, but don’t be fooled.  The ONLY statistic I like about Frank Beamer’s 2009 squad is that their offensive line has a combined 87 starts, returning five starters.  That’s it.  I DON’T like their quarterback, I DON’T like their defense and I DON’T like their chances against an Alabama team with a sinister coach who will not let them forget about what happened to them the last time they were on a big stage against a team less talented than them.  Alabama lost its starting quarterback, John Parker Wilson, as well as its All-SEC runningback, Glen Coffee.  But this is exactly why I think Alabama should have the edge despite being on the road in prime time.  Look for Alabama to implement the same keep away, clock control, power running strategy that almost got them to a national title game last season.  Using this strategy, they’ll hide their inexperienced QB’s flaws (just like last year), and their defense (who will make an inconsistent Tyrod Taylor look worse than he usually does) will do the rest.  Don’t be surprised by a double-digit Alabama win on the road.
• I KNOW that Navy will give Ohio State a nice little scare.  The same type of scare that will have sportswriters clamoring for their ballots so they can bury OSU in the rankings the next week.  I know Ohio State has won 30 straight home openers but I don’t care.  I also know that Navy isn’t anything special this year.  But what I do know is that Navy’s passing game, which was PATHETIC last season, now has a secret weapon of sorts in Ricky Dobbs.  The triple option attack should throw the Buckeyes for a loop and I look for Navy to throw the kitchen sink at Ohio State early and often to make-up for size and speed disadvantages.  And let’s not forget a certain date Ohio State has with you-know-who in their first ‘biggest game of of the year’ in week 2 (Beware of the ‘look-ahead’).  Besides, we all know that it’s not beyond reason for a Big-10 team to gag at home in its season opener (Again, See Appalachian State).
  

  Jim Tressel and Ohio State should beware of 'the scare'.

HERE’S WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN

• I THINK Oklahoma State AND Ole Miss will come out FLAT.  That’s two for one! Two SEXY picks who have been jocked by the so-called experts so hard that they’re not even sexy anymore.  Hell, I’ve already sold my investment in Oklahoma State’s HYPE stock.  Oklahoma state will play an overlooked Georgia team and, although I think Oklahoma State will squeak by with a win, I think they are going to sorely miss commodity Brandon Pettigrew who was important to both their passing and running game.  And, while I am still sitting in the front row of the ever-growing Ole Miss bandwagon, I think the first stop is going to be a bit bumpy as they go on the road to play Memphis.  I know Memphis’ 2009 recruiting class is worthy of content often seen in Hefty garbage bags or a pooper scooper on Venice beach, but winning on the road is NEVER a guarantee and it is ALWAYS impressive.  Don’t be surprised if this Ole Miss team, who hasn’t won ANYTHING, believes its own hype going into a Memphis “trap” game and lays an egg in the first half.
• I THINK Notre Dame will FAIL to cover the spread against The Wolfpack. 2 touchdowns.  -14.5 to be exact. Don’t be surprised if The Wolfpack storm into South Bend and slap The Domers right out of the top 25.  Notre Dame plays a shit schedule, and it should mean just that (shit) if they lose more than one game.  However Nevada is no slouch, and they return 14 starters, on offense and defense, from a team that played in a bowl game last season.  Bottom line, I’m not drinking that alcohol-spiked Fighting-Irish-flavored Kool Aid until Notre Dame shows me something.  Here’s your chance.  I’m waiting, and I’ve got a tall, full glass right here.

HERE’S WHAT I’M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT

• I’M PROBABLY WRONG, but BYU will beat Oklahoma outright.  OU’s offensive line issues scare me, and BYU will be playing a big game at a neutral site with nothing to lose.  The last few times I’ve used the words ’big game’ to describe a game involving Oklahoma, they’ve gagged, melted down, lost or managed to do all three.  This time, I’m taking the Mormons.
  

  Sam Bradford doesn't want BYU to spoil his return behind center. I kinda do.

• I’M PROBABLY WRONG, but Iowa is going to lay an egg against Northern Iowa.  Iowa lost Shonn Greene to the NFL draft, and Jewell Hampton to injury.  Runningback injuries usually don’t concern me, however it seems that Iowa has had some problems figuring out who will carry the rock now, which does concern me.  It’s been over a century since Northern Iowa last defeated Iowa which gives The Panthers some added motivation.  What the hell, I’m taking the Panthers to cover or win.

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Tags: Alabama, College Football, Georgia, Iowa, Navy, Nevada, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, The Big Nasty Athletic Dept., Virginia Tech