NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 12: ThanksGIVING The Points
__________________________________________________________________________SpreadSHREDDER Week 11 ATS: 1-2
SpreadSHREDDER Overall ATS: 20-13-1
SpreadSHREDDER Week 11 vs. The Total: 1-0
SpreadSHREDDER Overall vs. The Total: 2-1-1
Last week, The SpreadSHREDDER suffered its first losing week against the spread since week 2 but A. That Red-hot Raiders Pick that lead The SpreaddSHREDDER made you the smartest person in the room and B. It’ll only take three days for us to get back to my winning ways. Now let’s go shred some spreads.
<b>Dallas (-13.5) over Oakland </b>
We ignore most streaky handicapping statistics (i.e. Team X has won 5 straight games ATS!) at all costs when picking games here in The SpreadSHREDDER as these baiting stats are usually an indication that a certain aberrational streak is in jeopardy of coming to an end.
The Cowboys (-13.5) should have no problem beating the Raiders this Thursday.
However one trend that we have taken into consideration in picking The Cowboys this week, a trend that has held up since 2006, is that The Dallas Cowboys’ average margin of victory in the last three years on Thanksgiving is 28 points, or four touchdowns. There is a reasonable explanation to this statistic in that every year during Thanksgiving, teams playing The Cowboys lose 3-4 days of preparation as they get ready to play The Cowboys in Dallas.
The Oakland Raiders and their first year coaching staff will be losing 4 days of prep time, including an entire day to travel across three time zones to play Dallas, as they will be coming off of an overvalued victory over the red hot Bengals (a victory predicted by The SpreadSHREDEDER).
This time last year, it was The Seattle Seahawks making a similar westcoast to eastcoast trip en route to getting sandblasted by The Cowboys 34-9.
Much of ‘scratch of the surface’ newspaper clippings will be telling you about all the ‘problems’ with The Cowboys’ offense without mention of the fact that their last two games were against defenses ranked in the top 5. If The Cowboys’ offense really does have a problem, which it doesn’t, then the solution should be an ill-prepared, jet-lagged, below average Oakland Raider defense. <b>DALLAS 33-10</b>
<b>Miami (-3) over Buffalo</b>
The Buffalo Bills will be seeing a slight inflation in value after covering the spread as a heavy road underdog against an otherwise underachieving and inconsistent Jacksonville Jaguars team that’s just 4-6 against The Spread on the year.
While The Bills will be at home, they will be playing a Miami Dolphin team that has an extra 3 days to prepare for a division rival and makeshift coaching staff after The Dolphins’ Thursday night contest.
Miami’s identity is to run the football, and The Buffalo Bills have given up almost 170 ypg, which is second to last in The NFL and well below the league median. <b>MIAMI 27-13</b>
<b>New England (+3) over New Orleans</b>
The last time we saw The Patriots on prime time television, they were embarrassed after a 4th down blunder served as a catalyst for a comeback victory by the opposition. Good. Many felt as if The Patriots’ ensuing game against the Jets would be the ‘stick it’ game that Bill Belichick and that coaching staff are so well known for, but The Patriots will be seeking some prime time atonement against the best team in the NFC on a big stage.
The Patriots are a passing team, as they throw the ball almost 60% of the time, and they will be going against a pass defense that is only slightly above the NFL median amount of passing yards allowed per game.
New England’s aggressive and accurate passing attack should overwhelm a high-risk secondary that lives and dies on turnovers that they are not likely to see against a team that is (+12) in the turnover category. <b> NEW ENGLAND 31-20.</b>
[SpreadSHREDDER Point Spreads and wagering totals brought to you by Sportsbook.com by way of Vegasinsider.com. Lines and totals subject to change.]
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Tags: Dolphins vs. Bills, NFL, NFL betting lines, NFL lines week 12, NFL Thanksgiving, Patriots vs. Saints Monday Night Football, Raiders vs. Cowboys, SpreadSHREDDER
