Why I Hate The Saints: Warning Signs That The 2009 Saints Will Underachieve in the Playoffs
__________________________________________________________________________The 2009 New Orleans Saints have had a dream season, winning 13 games in a row and in prime position for a Superbowl run. Now I’ll tell tell you why a playoff appearance is the only thing The Saints should be looking forward to.
Drew Brees and The Saints will underachieve in The Playoffs.
Exhibit A: The Schedule
The NFL has many tactics (Salary Cap, Schedule coordination, The Draft) in place to promote parity and fairness. One of these tactics involves teams playing a schedule in accordance to where they placed at the conclusion of the prior season. For example, if a team finishes in last place, they play a ‘last place schedule’ the following season and they are guaranteed to play every other team in their conference who finished last.
The 2008 New Orleans Saints finished in last place. However, with an 8-8 record, this was not just any last place team. The NFC South Division in 2008 was one of the strongest divisions in The NFL as all four teams finished their respective 2008 campaigns with 8 or more wins.
- Buffalo Bills (7-9)
- Cleveland Browns (4-12)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
- Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
- Washington Redskins (8-8)
- Detroit Lions (0-16)
- New Orleans Saints (8-8)
- St. Louis Rams (2-14)
With the 2008 last place Saints but an aberration, the abnormally talented bottom-feeders from New Orleans, with their high-octane offense and big play defense, were set to feast the following season.
The 2009 Saints tore through their schedule, blowing out opponents who were inferior matchups both on paper and on Sundays. Again, these inferior matchups were a product of a tough NFC South division that saw a good team finish last and reap the benefits the following year.
Week 1 vs. Detroit: At this point, The Lions had come off of the worst season in NFL history and were threatening to break the record for the longest losing streak in NFL history. Saints 45, Lions 27.
Week 2 @ Philadelphia: With Donovan McNabb injured, The Saints feasted on a depleted Eagles team. Despite a valiant effort from Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia’s quarterback in waiting threw the ball 51 times, giving a Big Play Saints Defense ample opportunities for turnovers. Kolb was picked off 3 times. Saints 48, Eagles 22.
Week 3 @ Buffalo, who have gone on to fire their offensive coordinator AND coach. Saints 27, Bills 7.
Week 4 vs. New York Jets: The Jets were starting a rookie quarterback who has had his issues with turnovers. These issues materialized in this particular contest. The New York Jets were 3-0 heading into this contest. They went on to lose 6 of their next 7. Saints 24, New York Jets 10.
Week 6 vs. New York Giants: We called this one on our SpreadSHREDDER. The Saints had come off of a bye week and were playing a depleted and overvalued Giants team dealing with key injuries in their secondary. The New York Giants were 5-0 heading into this contest. They went on to lose 5 of their next 6. Saints 48, New York Giants 27.
Week 7 @ Miami: At this point we had begun to smell a rat. The Saints were good, but not this good. We picked against New Orleans this time, advising you to ‘Sell The Saints‘. It wasn’t just a catchphrase, it was Gospel. The Saints’ turnover ratio was too high. Their specialty touchdowns (on defense), way too high. This team, once stuck in the basement of The NFC South, was beginning to become overvalued. The Saints trailed 24-3 before we could even proofread that SpreadSHREDDER that week, and while they managed to pull off a miraculous comeback victory and even cover the spread for good measure, we knew we were dealing with a possible fraud. Saints 46, Dolphins 34.
The next seven weeks were business as usual for New Orleans. They went on to defeat the inconsistent Atlanta Falcons, The disappointing and turnover-prone Carolina Panthers, The 1-win Rams, The 1-win Bucs, The New England Patriots (a home game against a Patriots team who had not won on the road in America with Tom Brady since The Bush Administration), The 3-win Washington Redskins (in a scare), and The Depleted Atlanta Falcons (again, in a scare) who were without their pro-bowl quarterback or pro-bowl runningback .
The Saints were – um – Rolling. Then came Dallas.
EXHIBIT B: The Blueprint
In week 15, The New Orleans Saints played The Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys were an 8-5 team with talent dealing with the, now annual, criticisms of their failures in December. The Cowboys scored first. The Cowboys didn’t turn the ball over once. The explosive Saints were not able to play with the lead. Cowboys 24, Saints 17.
I am a prudent follower of MMA and Fight Sports as the fighters are featured only a few times per year, making their fights more interesting and highly anticipated.
Due to these competitors participating in just a handful of bouts per year, the training and preparation before each fight is intense, brutal, and pertinent to a fighter’s success.
Sparring sessions are among the standard methods of training for a fight as the principle fighter spars with lesser fighters in order to simulate a real bout. Sometimes, however, these lesser fighters get the better of the principle fighter which leads to minor adjustments being made to the principle fighter’s style, technique, approach, etc.
Most fight camps worth their salt are extremely anal about video taping full sparring sessions of their fighters, especially in the YouTube era. Videotaped sparring sessions could easily end up in the hands of someone from an enemy camp, putting the fighter in a precarious situation thus forcing him to make more than just minor adjustments to his approach now that his weaknesses have been caught on tape and viewed by camps who know what weaknesses to look for and how to exploit them.
It doesn’t work the same way in The NFL.
In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Once a team has shown its obvious flaws, the flaws have already been videotaped, are readily available to be cerebrally dissected by coaching staffs, and are reviewed incessantly until an entire gameplan has been designed specifically to exploit the team’s flaws. A Blueprint, if you will. The Saint’s Blueprint, although easier said than done, is simple. Control the clock, don’t turn the ball over, play with the lead.
The Saints chose the wrong time to become prone to such a blueprint as they are now in the home stretch of their regular season and will look to rest players and take their foot off of the gas pedal in preparation for the playoffs (See The 2007 Colts). By the time they get up for a serious game, which will be in about a month from now, The New Orleans Saints will hope to avoid coming out flat as they will be playing competition that is not only fine-tuned to exploiting their flaws (most of whom have positive turnover ratios and favorable time of possession statistics), but competition on a misson.
EXHIBIT C: Unfinished Business AKA “The Chip”
The New Orleans Saints have indeed had a dream season with 13 wins already under their belt. Yet this Saints team will be playing teams with the proverbial chip on their shoulder. So what? So The Giants won a Superbowl with a chip on their shoulder, The Cardinals got to a Superbowl with a Chip on their shoulder, and The Saints learned their lesson about playing teams with said chip as The Cowboys beat them at home amidst the aforementioned ‘December’ criticisms.
If that doesn’t put the fear of God into a Cajun Creaton, consider the NFC playoff teams that will have something to say about New Orleans steamrolling their way to a Superbowl:
The Philadelphia Ealges
Unfinished Business: The Eagles will be battling the age-old argument that they cannot win NFC Championship games in the playoffs (1-4). With The Eagles in position to possibly capture a #2 seed, The Eagles and Saints could meet in The Playoffs. The Eagles would have more to prove, as they will be desperate to shake the stigma of being a perennial playoff loser. And There’s nothing more dangerous in the playoffs than a desperate team.
The Dallas Cowboys
Unfinished Business: Should The Cowboys make the playoffs, they will battling the age-old ‘you can’t win in the playoffs!’ argument. The Cowboys are the team who developed the blueprint to beat The Saints, so New Orleans would likely prefer to avoid Dallas despite any tired football cliche’ you may hear. Dallas will be desperate to get the ‘Zero playoff wins this decade’ monkey off of their back, and there’s nothing more dangerous in the playoffs than a desperate team.
The Arizona Cardinals
Unfinished Business: The Cardinals finished just short of a Superbowl crown last season, and for most of the season, they have been playing with the desperation and hunger only capable of a team who came so close to a Superbowl. You know the rest.
The Green Bay Packers are two years removed from a bitter NFC Championship loss, and should they make the playoffs, they’ll be desperate to put The Brett Favre saga behind them with an improbable Superbowl run. The New York Giants are 2 years removed from a Superbowl victory, and they have to be in desperation mode from here on out if they want any chance of even making the playoffs. And is there anybody more desperate to retire with a superbowl than Brett Lorenzo Favre?
The 2006 Saints lost an NFC Championship game they were supposed to lose and haven’t been back since. One could even argue that The Saints have the least ‘unfinished business’ of any team in The Playoffs. So, tell me, what’s their motivation? Am I to have faith in a quarterback with limited playoff experience (1-2 in The Playoffs) on a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in almost 3 years?
Maybe The Saints continue their magical run. Maybe they mess around and win a Superbowl. If so, feel free to revisit this post on February 8, 2010 and mock me for my proclamation.
But as I sit here today, I don’t think The 2009 Saints will win a single playoff game and I know they will not win a Superbowl.
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Tags: 2009 New Orleans Saints, NFC Playoffs, NFL, NFL Playoff Scenarios, NFL Playoffs, The Last Time The Saints were in the playoffs, Why I hate The Saints
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