Tourney Talk Q&A with Brian Edwards: Full Interview
__________________________________________________________________________On the weekend of February 12, 2010, I spoke with Brian Edwards of Vegasinsider.com about The 2010 College Basketball season as we head into The 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Brian Edwards has been a mainstay as a handicapper with Vegasinsider.com since 2002. He regularly appears on ESPN radio, 1620 The Zone, and even hosts his own show entitled “Power Hours.” 
During our in-depth conversation, we covered a wide range of college basketball topics, and The Big Nasty Athletic Dept. released installments of “Tourney Talk” segments leading up to The March Madness Tournament. Below is the full interview conducted with Brian Edwards which include “Tourney Talk” Parts 1-11 as well as a “Sidetracked” Q&A feature that includes questions related to the life of Brian (Edwards). Basically, this is a DVD (or Blu-ray) of a movie you may have already seen but with excellent bonus features well worth the 32.99 retail price.
Brian’s keen sense of sports, developed through years of expert handicapping and ATS (Against The Spread) analysis, has made him one of our favorite handicappers and a great choice to provide expert insight on how The NCAA Tournament will shape up as the smoke begins to clear. Because bracketology will only get you so far.
Big Nasty: The past few seasons in college basketball have kind of been ‘chalk’ seasons that saw the favorites end up in the Final Four. This year, with traditional powers such as UNC, Texas, and Michigan State faltering down the stretch, it’s beginning to look a bit more wide open. Do you feel this could be the year of the underdogs or will the favorites return to form come March?
Brian Edwards: I agree that this year has not been as ‘chalky’ in terms of the national picture. Although I do still consider Kansas the team to beat, even the Jayhawks have some warts. And beyond KU, I think the other spots in the Final Four are wide open. Kentucky might have as much talent as any team in the country, but there are a lot of egos and immaturity on that team. And who trusts John Calipari as a game coach in March? DeMarcus Cousins is going to have to control his emotions in the NCAA Tournament, and I’m not sure I have confidence in him being able to do so. I won’t be surprised if UK goes out as early as the Sweet 16 round.
Big Nasty: What about that Camp Cal program Calipari runs every year during the season? Do you think that could help with maturity issues
in the long run or has the effect of all that extra work already worn off?
Brian Edwards: When it comes to maturity and discipline, I think you’re better off with a lot of coaches that aren’t named John Calipari. The dude brings in studs (but at what eventual cost?), but he’s not a quality game coach — period.
Big Nasty: Going back to the topic of underdogs, one of the subplots of this season has been the surprisingly strong play of the Atlantic 10. Representatives of The A-10 have impressed in years past with strong showings from Xavier, Dayton, and even St. Joe’s one year. With the entire conference stepping their game up, do you see this conference making noise in the NCAA tournament?
Brian Edwards: There’s no doubt that the A-10 is as strong as it has ever been and is poised to make a lot of noise in the NCAA Tournament. I was very impressed with the way Xavier went down to Gainesville and dominated the Gators this past Saturday night. The league has six teams with RPI ratings of 41 or higher, and I think all six of those schools – Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, Richmond, Dayton and Charlotte – are going to get bids. I’m not sure if URI and Charlotte can advance in the Big Dance, but the other four schools are capable of getting to the Sweet 16. The [Xavier] Muskateers don’t have many flaws and I say they are the A-10’s best shot at getting to the Final Four.
Big Nasty: Oregon State is an example of a good value pick against the spread as they are 12-5 (as of Feb 11) ATS despite being only 10-13. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like they will be in the tournament given their lackluster record, so give a us few teams nobody is talking about that you consider good value bets.
Brian Edwards: Well, with the new CBI Tournament, you can actually get a bid with a sub-.500 record like Oregon St. did last season. And I was a big backer of the Beavers as they went 6-0 against the spread en route to winning the CBI last year. Another team in that same mold as the Beavers – both this year and last – is Georgia.
I thought Mark Fox from Nevada was a curious hire by Georgia AD Damon Evans this past off-season. But I’m willing to admit when I was wrong, and I now think Fox was an excellent hire. He’s led the Dawgs to wins over Illinois, Ga. Tech, Tennessee and Vandy. Most importantly for our purposes, UGA owns an 11-4 spread record in its last 15 games. Bettors can still back UGA catching a healthy amount of points in its SEC road games, so I would continue to keep an eye on this under-the-radar squad.
Big Nasty: I’m glad you mentioned the CBI tourney. If a team like an Oregon State wins this tournament again, given their strong ATS record, do you think that would add more merit to this new tournament or just delay the inevitable for the winning party involved?
Brian Edwards: I don’t know that the CBI will ever have much merit, but it’s great for gamblers as it provides more games and more opportunities to cash tickets.
Big Nasty: On the flip side, every year there seems to be a team (last year it was Wake Forest) that is bounced early as a high seed. Who is in danger of being that team this year?
Brian Edwards: I’ll go with Tennessee and Texas to perhaps be bounced as early as the first round. The Vols went through a lot of drama in early January and to their credit, they answered the bell after the dismissal of Tyler Smith. However, I get the sense that Bruce Pearl’s team is running out of gas recently. We’ll see if they can find a second wind. As for the Longhorns, they can’t make free throws and lack quality point-guard play. Those are two kisses of death come March.
Big Nasty: You mentioned Texas as a possible early out in the tournament. What happened to Texas? Do you see any way that they rebound from their current slump in time for the conference/NCAA tournaments?
Brian Edwards: Texas has as much talent as any team in the country so yes, it can turn things around. And the Longhorns have an outstanding coach in Rick Barnes, who I have a lot of respect for. However, I just don’t see it happening. As I mentioned, this team doesn’t have a true point guard, at least not one that’s stepping up and taking control of this team at this critical time. Jai Lucas, the Florida transfer, hasn’t found a comfort zone with his new teammates yet. And free-throw shooting is this squad’s Achilles’ heel just like with Memphis a couple of years back. Again, the ‘Horns could very easily go out the first weekend. But they might get to the Sweet 16 on talent and size, but I don’t see Texas getting further than that.
Big Nasty: And as for the other team you mentioned, Tennessee? They seemed to avoid imploding after four of their players were arrested on drug and weapons charges and suspended indefinitely. Tennessee has struggled against ranked opponents lately, which included a tough loss on the road to Kentucky…
Brian Edwards: I was extremely impressed with the way the Vols handled adversity in January. Again, they may have hit a wall here recently, but Pearl is starting to get Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins back into the rotation and Brian Williams will soon follow. So there’s time to right the ship and the starters won’t have to play as many minutes in the coming week as they did in January. But I still question this team’s shot selection at times and I don’t think UT makes a strong NCAA Tournament run. The Sweet 16 is their ceiling and I don’t think they get that far.
Big Nasty: Let’s stick with SEC Hoops talk as this is obviously one of your specialties. You talked about Kentucky’s immaturity earlier, but Kentucky will be the runaway favorite to win that conference tournament. Who else in the SEC can push Kentucky?
Brian Edwards: We’ll find out if Mississippi St. has anything for the ‘Cats in Starkville tonight. Remember, the Bulldogs caught fire at the SEC Tournament last year and earned their way into the Big Dance. MSU is a team that can get hot. Rick Stansbury’s squad doesn’t have much depth due to a few injuries and the eligibility issues of Renardo Sidney. But on a night when Dee Bost is making good decisions, Ravern Johnson is knocking down 3’s and Jarvis Varnado stays out of foul trouble, Mississippi St. will be a tough out. I also like Vandy, which didn’t pose much of a threat to UK when they met at Rupp Arena. But I’ll be interested to see how John Calipari’s team fares this weekend in Music City. The Commodores have a lot of depth in the frontcourt and I love their point guard Jermaine Beal. I still think Kentucky loses at least one more SEC game, possibly two, and I think its youth will be a factor in the NCAA Tournament. I don’t think the ‘Cats make the Final Four.
Big Nasty: So who do you see, from The SEC, even making the tournament?
Brian Edwards: Right now, Vandy (Vanderbilt), Kentucky and Tennessee are the only locks. Ole Miss, Mississippi St. and Florida are on the bubble. The Bulldogs can really bolster their resume tonight with a win over the ‘Cats. UF and Ole Miss will square off in Oxford this weekend. The Gators are coming off a tough week with losses at South Carolina and vs. Xavier. UF has a pair of strong non-conference wins against Michigan St. and FSU, but it had better beat both Vandy and Tennessee at the O-Dome in the coming weeks. Right now I predict that five SEC teams will get in, as I see Ole Miss and Mississippi St. finishing strong, while the Gators will falter.
Big Nasty: Bettors love trends. Give us some interesting trends you’ve picked up on this season that the average bracketologist should be aware of.
Brian Edwards: Since I cashed another ‘over’ ticket on a Villanova game last night, I’ll go with that trend as one that’s been leading me to winners lately. I usually don’t specifically apply an ‘over’ or ‘under’ tag to a team because that can often times depend on who the team is playing. However, with Jay Wright’s team, it always seems to dictate the pace. The Wildcats want to press for 40 minutes and offensively, they’ve got two outstanding guards in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher who relentlessly attack the basket. And whether or not ‘Nova is trailing late in the second half (at Georgetown recently and vs. UConn last night) or protecting a lead (at West Va. last week), its games tend to turn into foul-fests in the waning minutes. All of these factors have led to a 16-8 record for the ‘over’ when ‘Nova takes the court.
Big Nasty: So who do you feel is the best value bet? What team would you classify as the ‘best bet’ team that could potentially make the tournament from an ATS standpoint?
Brian Edwards: Strictly from an ATS perspective, I’ve got to go with Oregon St. (14-5 ATS) and Northwestern. Both teams thrive in healthy underdog situations on the road and get the job done at home when catching points or as small favorites. The Wildcats are 15-6 ATS after cashing tickets Sunday in a pick ‘em affair victory over Minnesota. Bill Carmody’s team plays scrappy defense in its 1-3-1 zone, and this club has 3-point shooters galore. The schedule sets up nicely for Northwestern down the stretch, so don’t be shocked if this squad plays itself into contention for an NCAA bid. But to be honest, I’d rather see them get into the NIT for a lengthy run in which I can cash more tickets by backing this team. And watch out for Northwestern next year when Kevin Coble returns. Jeremy Nash is the only senior this team will lose.
Big Nasty: We have to talk about The Dookies before wrapping this thing up. Duke has had some disappointing showings in past NCAA tourneys. Mismatches at guard always seemed to do them in, but with one of the more stacked teams in The Coach K era, how far do you see Duke team going this year?
Brian Edwards: Duke has been a disappointment in March the last few years, but I think the Blue Devils have a little more muscle this year. In recent seasons, they haven’t had much depth and have been beaten up on the interior. I’m not implying they’ve fully addressed those issues, but this squad is definitely tougher than those in recent years. I still don’t see Duke getting back to the Final Four, but this team will get to the Sweet 16 and possibly the Elite Eight.
Big Nasty: Do you see any match-up nightmares for Duke among the elite teams? Villanova dismantled them in last year’s tournament, so could Duke hang with those great guards in a possible rematch?
Brian Edwards: I’d probably make Villanova at least a five-point favorite against Duke on a neutral court. I’m ok with Duke’s guards. I think the fear for them would be a team with top-notch big men.
Sidetracked: Some ‘fun questions’ for Brian Edwards
Big Nasty: Atlanta has been mentioned before as being one of the nation’s most miserable sports cities. As an Atlanta sports fan, are you ever miserable?
Brian Edwards: Oh yeah, I’ve had many miserable moments as a life-long fan of the Falcons, Braves and Hawks. My interest in baseball has waned in recent years, so I’m over all the Braves’ disappointments. And right now I feel really good about the Hawks and Falcons. I love GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Mike Smith, and Arthur Blank is a great owner. I can’t blame him for being so invested in Michael Vick (the entire city and fan base was, and for good reasons – the postseason win at Green Bay and the trip to the NFC title game two years later did still happen), and I’ve given him a mulligan on the abysmal decision to hire Bobby Petrino. With Matt Ryan at QB, I’m confident the Falcons will be in the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history in the next 3-4 years, if not this coming season. As for the Hawks, they have a great amount of young talent, and Al Horford and Josh Smith are locked up contractually for several years to come. GM Rick Sund has done a remarkable job and the slick acquisition of Jamal Crawford was a stroke of genius. Hawks might make some noise in the playoffs this year, and they are set up nicely into the future.
Big nasty: As a Florida graduate, who was an Atlanta native, do you hate the Georgia Bulldogs or are there mixed feelings there?
Brian Edwards: I’ve spent most of the last decade in Atlanta but I’m actually from the Tallahassee, Florida area (Quincy – home of Dexter Jackson, Super Bowl MVP for the Bucs against the Raiders). So I actually grew up around mostly Seminoles rather than Bulldogs. And being a Gator, this made me hate FSU as much as I love the Gators. As for the Bulldogs, they don’t beat my Gators enough for me to have too many problems with them. (Herschel Walker dressed in red and black was a long time ago!)
Big Nasty: Who is your favorite Gator of all time?
Brian Edwards: Great questions – love it!!
15-Favorite Gator(s) –
Five Favorite Football Gators:
1-Steve Spurrier
2-Tim Tebow
3-Danny Wuerffel
4-Wilber Marshall
5-Fred Taylor
Five Favorite Basketball Gators:
1-Andrew Moten
2-Al Horford
3-Udonis Haslem
4-Joakim Noah
5-Lee Humphrey
Big Nasty: Do you experience any ‘creative limitations’ writing for a sports gaming site as opposed to being a sports writer?
Brian Edwards: I guess the only creative limitation I would point out is not being able to get press passes and go to as many games because of the “gambling thing.” Now that’s different for boxing and UFC – those sports will cater to us as much as the next media type. But obviously, we don’t get press passes for college events.
Big Nasty: Apparently you don’t care too much for Bobby Bowden. Aren’t you going to miss his presence on the sidelines for FSU just a little bit?
Brian Edwards: I liked Bobby a lot better toward the end when my Gators were beating up on him annually. And on that note, I was hoping he’d stick around for another decade!
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[...] THINK Kentucky will underachieve in The NCAA Tournament. Brian Edwards had some strong words for Kentucky, namely their coach John Calipari who he felt wasn’t a good enough game coach to [...]