UFC 111: Don’t Call it a Preview
__________________________________________________________________________UFC piggyback’s Wrestlemania weekend as they will showcase two big time bouts in a relatively top-heavy card despite very little name brand value outside GSP.
MAIN CARD PROJECTIONS
George St. Pierre (-625) over Dan Hardy. Let’s not discount Dan Hardy on this one. Hardy may be known as the guy GSP is fighting the night before Wrestlemania, but he is a budding star in the UFC with an impressive bag o tricks (Muay Thai, Jiu-Jitsu) and he is a guy who knows howto sell a fight. With that said, I fully expect George St. Pierre to win this fight. This is one of the few times that an upset in the UFC would absolutely shock me. Sure Hardy could land an elbow and catch St. Pierre by surprise, but he’ll have a hard time landing that elbow from his back.
St. Pierre’s exceptional wrestling skills will be a bad matchup for Hardy, and multiple takedowns by St. Pierre should neutralize every Muay Thai maneuver Dan Hardy has up his sleeve. Hardy will need to reach into his Jiu Jitsu arsenal if he wants any chance of outclassing GSP, however he does not seem to be an elite Jui-Jitsu and will probably need more fights under his belt in the octagon to fully grasp how this art can be effectively utilized to win fights. Dan Hardy is one entertaining fellow, but that’s where his appeal will end for purposes of this fight.
Frank Mir (-111) over Shane Carwin. This is going to be an interesting fight that should be your typical heavyweight slugfest. This does not bode well for Frank Mir, who is one half-hearted punch by Carwin from staring at the lights. Carwin’s effective rock ‘em, sock ‘em robot offense, however, will be heavily tested by the wily Jui-Jitsu veteran in Frank Mir, who will be hungry for another rematch with the returning Brock Lesnar.
Expect Mir to move around and avoid too many striking showdowns with the dangerous Carwin. Mir’s striking has been overvalued as of late after that clinic he put on against an over-the-hill Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and if he believes his own hype and tries to box with Carwin he’ll be damn near tempting fate. Surprisingly enough, I see Mir getting the big dog to the ground and slapping on a submission a la Mir/Lesnar I.
Fabricio Camoes (+185) over Kurt Pellegrino. You want tips on calling UFC upsets? The cardinal rule states that favorites coming off of an injury are ALWAYS prone to an upset no matter what. Kurt Pellegrino has shown us in the past that he is vulnerable to submission defeats, and Camoes has gone unbeaten in his last 8 fights due in part to his purebred Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu. Camoes will be looking to impress UFC higher ups against a veteran that is flirting ‘out of his prime’ status. We’re going with the kid.
Jon Fitch (-500) over Ben Saunders. Jon Fitch is one of our favorite fighters. John Fitch is in my fight club. Jon Fitch will not lose to Ben Saunders. Cool nickname though, Saunders. Screw you Alves, but get well soon.
Mark Bocek (+325) over Jim Miller. Fuck it, we’ll throw another upset in there! While Jim Miller may be the better all around fighter, this Jui-Jitsu dancefest will favor Bocek and his black belt as opposed to Jim Miller and his lowly brown belt. As ridiculous as that sounds, just think of it. It’s likely that Bocek will be more confident in his ground game and will be the first one with the stones to make a move in what should be a fight that will be lacking in the aggression department early. It’s also worth mentioning that Bocek’s submission game has been on point lately, after a slight rough patch. Bocek wins out.
PROJECTED AWARDS
Fight of the Night: Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
Submission of the Night: Mark Bocek over Jim Miller
Knockout of the Night: Jon Fitch over Ben Saunders
PROJECTED BUYRATE
Dana White is once again showing the world that he has eggs of stones as he puts on a big time UFC pay per view the night before The WWE’s biggest pay per view of the year. However with only one mainstream UFC star on the card and money at a premium in today’s economy, this one’s gonna hurt. Bad. 375,000 Buys.
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Tags: Big Nasty's Fight Club, Jon Fitch Thiago Alves, UFC, UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy, Wrestlemania Weekend UFC
